Arizona Canvass Update: 299,493 Votes Impacted

  • by:
  • Source: UncoverDC
  • 09/19/2023

The Maricopa County canvassing results are now published. Biden allegedly won by 10,457  votes in Arizona, yet, the report shows 173,104 "lost votes" and "96,389" ghost votes. Liz Harris, who spearheaded the canvass, appeared on Bannon's War Room on Wednesday with Seth Keshel weighing in with his own data and his interpretation of the canvass data.

According to Harris, their canvass is a low-end, conservative estimate of the votes impacted; 299,493 impacted votes or 1/7th of the 2.089mm total in Maricopa County.

As reported by UncoverDC, Harris trained hundreds of volunteers to go door-to-door to canvass “vacant lots, hotels, county buildings, apartment complexes with no corresponding apartment number, abandoned properties, non-existent addresses, homes for elderly, churches, sports arenas, homeless shelters, native American reservations." The independently-run grassroots canvass is a crucial piece in the puzzle for election integrity because it seeks to reconcile the voter database with the voter rolls. A simple count of votes does not necessarily reflect the will of the voters.

Lost Votes

Canvass volunteers "attempted 11,708 doors," and the response amounted to 4570 people who answered the questions. Harris said that the volunteers performed.

"random samples throughout Maricopa County, and then we did a full precinct, and we did partials on three precincts...We canvassed all registered voters; we didn't just canvas the official record. We went to everyone, and 34.23% of people that we had a record of not having voted said, What do you mean? I voted! Yes, I did!"

Harris Grassroots Canvass/Report/Sept. 8, 2021

"Overall," the report states, "there were 505,709 people in the county registered to vote who did not have a vote recorded in the election. Extrapolating these results to the entire county, which can be done at a scientifically correlated confidence level of 95%, it is estimated that 173,104 voters had their votes stolen. Given the canvass confidence interval of 1.5, this number technically ranges from 165,518 to 180,690 voters."

Ghost Votes

Regarding ghost votes, the report states, "Maricopa County recorded an estimated 96,389 mail-in votes that likely could not have been physically cast by the voter that the vote was registered to." 
Harris recounted the story of one voter who told canvassers that she had received ballots for a renter she had housed at her home in 2010, and only for a brief period. The homeowner received a ballot for the renter at her address in the 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. She sent the ballot back to the county for the first four elections listed, stating the renter no longer lived there. In 2020, she kept the ballot.  Somehow, a ballot using the renter's name and information was fraudulently submitted in all five elections. 
The report states the following:
During the canvass data on registered voters was gathered from registered voters at their residences, with 3606 of them listed by Maricopa County as having voted in the election. 2,897 were recorded by the county as having voted by mail. During that process, 164 mail-in voters were identified as being unknown to the resident or known but having moved prior to the election registration deadline. This represents 5.66% of all mail-in voters on which data was gathered. Overall, there were 1,702,981 mail-in votes tallied [by the] in the election. Extrapolating these results to the entire county, which can be done at a scientifically correlated confidence level of 95%, it is estimated that 96,389 mail-in ballots should not have been cast due to this issue. More technically, with a 1.5 confidence interval, this number ranges from 70,844 to 121,933.

Ghost Voters/Liz Harris/Canvass Report/Sept. 8, 2021

When added together, other issues found by the canvassers added up to 5.18 percent of mail-in votes, "or an estimated 88, 215 votes."

Other Issues Found/Harris Canvass/Report/Sept. 8, 2021

Expert Data Analyst, Seth Keshel, explains that Arizona has long been a Republican stronghold, a fact many do not know. He says, "it has only been blue twice since the end of WWll, once in 1948 for Truman and then again in 1996 for Bill Clinton." This fact is important because it provides context for just how unusual the numbers in the November election were.

"The last time Maricopa County," Keshel continues, "voted for the Democrat Nominee was in 1948... and ever since then it has been a Republican county, including for Donald Trump in 2016 when he had fewer votes than Mitt Romney after four years of population growth." 

Keshel adds that the population growth for Maricopa county has slowed down and, therefore, cannot be the reason for the high Democrat turnout for Biden.

Keshel's graph below shows the "net new votes for the two party candidates. Keeping in mind that Maricopa County has been a Republican stronghold, the graph shows that in 2020, Trump gained a record 248,000 new votes, consolidating "lost third party voters" and "pulled in what we know to be a significant section of the Hispanic working class. And now you see the Biden number in 2020. That's almost three times their previous high vote gain in the county in a Republican stronghold that hasn't been blue since 1948! This is the impetus for what the heck happened in Maricopa county because we have a record Republican result in a Republican stronghold." Yet, Biden won.

Seth Keshel/War Room/Historic Net New Votes for Trump in 2020

He then went down-ballot and looked at "the races that were too close to certify" yet were certified by Secretary of State Hobbs. "It's not just the top of the ticket," Keshel continues.

The data presented by Keshel on other races show margins of error, in some cases, that are under 2%. Some, like the Maricopa County Board Supervisor Jack Sellers winning by only 403 votes.

Seth Keshel/Other Races/Maricopa County/Sept. 8, 2021

Keshel states that it is a shame many failed to talk about the other races, but they didn't

"because of the significance of the President's race. But these are absolutely mind-boggling. That we could certify an election based on the numbers...and if there is significant fraud present, then we're talking about serious human rights violations and lack of equal protection under the law for the voters that had their votes stolen..these were certified very quickly with serious allegations of fraud including thousands of written affidavits, not just in Arizona, but across the country and we did not press the brakes long enough in this country to be able to look at this under the microscope and see that there could be some serious misrepresentation in the state legislature as well."

Keshel provides his insights on the Arizona election here. He estimates the number of disputed ballots to be approximately 300,000 for the state. Keshel's full analysis of the 2020 election can be found here.

The forensic audit team has yet to perform its canvass.  Some speculate it has been delayed because of a letter sent by a somewhat threatening Department of Justice letter from Pamela Karlan to Senate President Karen Fann on May 5.

An excerpt from the letter states that a canvass "raises concerns regarding potential intimidation of voters." 

Karlan May 5 DOJ letter to Senate President Karen Fann

The report for the full forensic audit is being reviewed and is expected to be released sometime in September. The Senate seems to still be waiting for routers and other subpoenaed materials after a decision by Attorney General Brnovich requiring compliance from the otherwise non-compliant Maricopa Board of Supervisors (MCBOS).

Based on today's canvass report and Keshel's data, Rep. Mark Finchem seems to be convinced there was fraud in the 2020 election. Both he and Sen. Wendy Rogers want the election to be decertified.

Finchem and other legislators are also scrutinizing more fully the 2021 elections manual that SoS Hobbs released in draft form for public comment on Aug. 13. Finchem says election security concerns are among the reasons he is looking closely.



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