Eye on Politics: Roll Tide! Vote by Mail Analysis

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  • Source: UncoverDC
  • 09/19/2023

As the Democrat lead in the Vote By Mail (VBM) mounted two weeks ago, many Republicans panicked. Not only do Democrats usually lead in “early” voting (which includes both VBM and “In-Person Early Voting,” or IPEV), but this year in particular—with the China Virus—their emphasis on VBM has resulted in stunning voting levels. So far.

Then, suddenly, the Democrats peaked. On or around October 16, their VBM numbers, especially in Florida, began to slow. Although they had one last burst for the “Souls to the Polls” of October 24-25, it was their last gasp. When IPEV started in Florida, Republicans came out like a mighty wave, rolling over the Democrats. To date, they have over 1.3 million in-person voters. (The Democrats have not been, to use Joe Biden’s term, “chumps” at this, turning out 945,000 in-person early voters, but they are steadily losing ground). Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State.

Ponder that. Despite the most extensive early vote/VBM campaign in history by the Democrats, Republicans are as of today poised to lead by election day. Even more astounding, they are within a mere 8,000 votes overall of winning Miami-Dade County. And right now Republicans in every county from Pensacola to the western border of Jacksonville at or above 98% of their 2016 levels (except Bay, Butler, and Leon which started later), but in these same counties Democrat turnout is lagging.

But here is something we cannot measure, yet seems to bode incredibly well for Trump: in these same deeply red counties, where one would expect to find more conservative people, the turnout of independents is off the charts. Every county sits at 100% of the 2016 turnout.

Meanwhile in North Carolina, while Democrats lead by 301,000 (and this is also falling rapidly), the black vote currently is at 20% of all turnout, behind the black share of all 2016 turnout of 21.89%—itself a drop off from 2012. When Barack Obama won the state in 2012, the share of the black vote was 23%, but he won by only one point. This does not bode well for North Carolina Democrats. Nor does the drop off in 18-25-year-old vote, which is now 1.1% behind 2016. (Remember, under the LS theory of student drop-off due to closed campuses, this share of the vote should be up by 30% at the end of vote by mail to compensate).

While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton. Anyone who thinks Biden will make it up in the middle of the state is smoking something special. Richard Baris has said his polling similarly shows Trump at a minimum of 17% in Pennsylvania.

Not only can Biden not win Pennsylvania with these numbers, he would suffer major hits across the board.

So what to make of the ABC poll today that shows Trump losing Wisconsin by 17? Apparently the pollsters never even consulted the data that shows that while Dane County, a big Democrat stronghold is performing well, Milwaukee, the other Democrat bastion, is trailing its 2016 numbers and the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington), which are Republican strongholds, are off the charts in terms of ballots returned, or that a Democrat firm that uses modeling has Republicans outvoting Democrats in Wisconsin.  We are rapidly moving to the point that the Hoax Polling Industry will cease to be taken seriously even by leftists if this continues.

Larry Schweikart is the co-author with Michael Allen of the #1 New York Times bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States, author of Reagan: The American President, and the founder of the Wild World of History, a history curriculum website that features full US and World History courses that include teacher guides, student workbooks, tests/answer keys, images/graphs/maps, and video lessons to correspond to all units (www.wildworldofhistory.com).


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