On Friday, the Des Moines Register threw a hand grenade into the entire polling industry. Widely acclaimed as the “gold standard” of polls, the Register had Trump winning Iowa by 7 points—right where the Register had him in 2016. The headlines blared that this was a harbinger in 2016 about other Midwestern states that Trump eventually won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
And none of the stories mentioned that in 2016 the register . . . was wrong. It was low. Trump won Iowa not by 7, but by 10.
Suddenly, over the weekend, many—but not all—other polls showed a rapidly tightening race. Politico, the official mouthpiece of the Democrat Party, screamed “If Pennsylvania Goes, So Will Go the Country.” Overnight, liberal publications that had put Joe Biden so far ahead Trump would need ships from the Space Force to catch him warned that the race was close. In Florida, where Biden saw virtually any hope of taking the state slip away, the consultants were already sniping at each other for “who lost Florida.” The fact that Republicans actually led in In-Person-Early-Voting in both Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties led to reports the Biden campaign was “worried”.
On Sunday, Richard Baris told me that in Wisconsin, his own polling might need to be readjusted because of the massive turnout in the red suburban counties around Milwaukee. And local Democrat operatives for the first time openly began to criticize the campaign strategy for the last several months of hyping the China Virus and not sending out field staff to knock on doors. As I have been insisting for months, the strategy was haphazard and ill-thought-out. There was no way the Democrats could simultaneously tout the dangers of the China Virus and still goose turnout on election day. The two were mutually exclusive.
This strategy, as I’ve said all along, destroyed the college vote. Look at the latest from Wisconsin [see below] where 18-29 year olds are only 3% of the vote. But this is highly misleading, because the correct age group to evaluate here is 18-24, not 29. The 18-24 are the college students. If 18-29 are only 3%, the college group must almost be in negative numbers. But remember! This group needed to be way up—perhaps as high as 30% to the good by election day—to offset the number of students not on campuses. This number portends a collapse of Democrat votes, not just in Wisconsin, but across the country.
Wisconsin Early Return Ballots:1,525,415 44% R / 36% D / 20% NP
A: 18-29 3% / 30-39 7% / 40-49 10% / 50-64 26% / 65+ 36%
Asian 1.6% / White 77% / Hispanic 3% / AfAm 3%
HS Diploma 21% / Bach Degree 23% / Grad Degree+ 12%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 7.6% https://t.co/Zwc2KpkpU2 pic.twitter.com/5vJjgLwynY
— L2 Data (@L2political) November 1, 2020
Then, right on cue, comes the “Final Lockdown” (with apologies to the band “Europe”). Gavin Newsom in California and Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan have tried to ensure that Republicans cannot get to the polls with new lockdown orders. This is unlikely to work either, especially with so many early votes.
The numbers within the numbers of an electorate, so far, that is older, whiter, less college-educated, and more male, combined with what appears to be a significant number of blacks and Hispanics voting for President Trump will likely reshape the existing numbers beyond all imagination. If this all transpires as I expect, the real battle is about to begin on November 4th.
We will see violence and a new “resistance” that is the last, writhing gasp of the Deep State, the global elites, and the liberal foot soldiers before a serious, coordinated Trump counterattack begins. Stories already are swirling that Trump plans to fire FBI director Christopher Wray and CIA Director, Gina Haspel, as soon as the election is over. This is not only desirable but also critical if Trump hopes to achieve anything in office.
But it won’t be enough to just begin to take on some of these embedded Deep Staters: he must actually indict some of the worst culprits. And that won’t be enough. Nothing less than a national butt-kicking of the lockdown governors will suffice to get the U.S. back on its feet, for clearly, these governors have no intention of easing up. The latest rounds of China Virus hysteria pieces attest to that.
The good news is that aside from rebuilding the economy, Trump can pretty much concentrate on doing little else but restoring the real American justice system after the election.
In 2017, I told my readers that they could have Hillary Clinton in jail, or they could have the Trump agenda. They couldn’t have both. We got almost all of the Trump agenda. Now is the time to right the scales and end the two-tiered justice system in America.
Larry Schweikart is the co-author, with Michael Allen, of the #1 New York Times #1 bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States, author of Reagan: the American President, and founder of the Wild World of History history curriculum website that features US and World History courses that include teacher’s guide, student workbooks, tests/answer keys, maps/images/graphs, and video lessons accompanying every unit (www.wildworldofhistory.com).